(6-19-2006 Here's where we are as of mid-June: Many races are already known, but there's still last-minute shuffling in some districts, as candidates assess which race is the most winnable for them. All cards will be on the table after the July 3 deadline to file for office. The smart strategy for gunowners will once again focus on General Assembly races. Without pro-gun legislators, bad bills become law independent of what a governor could do (even if he would.) With pro-gunners we can affect what bills advance in the first place. The earlier we fight gun control, the easier and cheaper it is to stop.
As we handicap it now, we have a chance for modest pick-ups of pro-gun votes in the Senate. In the House, we've a hard job ahead of us to get back up to the same number of pro-gun Delegates as started the term, owing to the large number of mid-term losses. (Many experienced friends left to accept Ehrlich appointments; their replacements have yet to win an election, and in some cases aren't pro-gun.) How well we will do depends on community turn-out and investment.
Our early candidate surveys are out now (the rest will be mailed after the filing deadline.) We expect to devote July resources to outreach, so look for the next subscriber newsletter (with specifics on our primary picks) in August. This year's ratings will emphasize team play among legislators. Three terms ago the community couldn't stop major gun control packages from being rammed through. Since then we fought to where we are today – no bad bills went through and we had a shot at passing modest bills of our own. (This is a trend you make possible!) We lost the good bills, though, and one reason was lack of team play among officials who would rather have a fundraising issue than a policy improvement. (The poster child for poor team play is Delegate Don Dwyer. As we've reported, two years ago pro-gun forces had a plan for repeal of ballistic fingerprinting. The time was right and the plan was good. Gun lobbyists briefed Dwyer, a self-described pro-gunner on a key committee, yet he then took steps to scuttle the effort, apparently preferring loud confrontations over quiet gains. Even though he has never passed a bill, Dwyer has done more to preserve gun control than most liberals in the state. Our ratings will look past the claims and report the facts.)
UPDATE ON GUBERNATORIAL POLITICS
The race for governor got a poor start for us, and won't get any better. As predicted, Montgomery County Executive Doug Duncan selected as his running mate Stu Simms (whose history as a gun-grabber we reported last issue) then began campaigning over guns. Duncan favors banning semi-auto firearms, and his ad slammed Bob Ehrlich for not favoring a ban too. Ehrlich's campaign quickly responded by assuring voters Bob did not favor repealing the state's limited ban on some guns designated (by state law) as “assault rifles.” Great – one side campaigns on a platform of what he'll do to us and the other campaigns on a platform of what he'd refuse to do for us. [Added 6-22-2006: Duncan drops out!]
What of the O'Malley camp? You may have seen in the news that New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg ran a gun-sting-gone-bad, where he solicited henchmen to attempt illegal gun purchases up and down the east coast, all for the purpose of demagoguing if they got guns. (The large number of federal laws he broke in the process is now the stuff of a new Department of Justice investigation.) Below that headline is Baltimore Mayor Martin O'Malley , who in early June endorsed the operation and joined a coalition of other city mayors in support of the gun sting.
UPDATE ON FEDERAL RACES
The US Senate race (to fill retiring stealth-senator Sarbanes' seat) still gives something for odds-makers to debate. In the Democratic primary, gun-grabbers abound. Some pundits still trumpet Kweisi Mfume 's prospects, but Ben Cardin looks to us to have all the fundamentals nailed down to prevail. On the Republican side, Mike Steele is almost assured of a primary victory, which would move him forward to the general with less certain prospects. So far he shows every sign of following Ehrlich's practice of avoiding comment on issues of interest to a conservative base, so with neither a position statement nor a track record it becomes unlikely that a clear favorite will surface in that race. Save your donations and energy for candidates who will commit to what they will do for us.
Of eight House seats, only one is up for grabs – the seat vacated by Cardin's senatorial bid. All others look safe for incumbents. Wish we had better news on the opening (Congressional 3) seat, but so far no good guys to work for. Many candidates are running, but Paula Hollinger – presently a gun-grabbing state senator – has the edge for now.
UPDATE ON STATE RACES
The Senate is a key battleground, made more interesting because of the number of retirements. Several are of anti-gunners whose likely successors are unlikely to be friendly to our issue – Sharon Grosfeld, Paula Hollinger, Len Teitelbaum, Gloria Lawlah and Ralph Hughes . Take a moment to reflect on the last of that list. As a delegate, Hughes was chief sponsor of HB 1131 in 1988 – the handgun ban, which results in so much bureaucracy to buy a handgun. He portrays himself as a champion of rights for African-Americans but looking back its clear nobody has done more to keep his constituents in check and disenfranchised. Once you deny affordable self protection to poor people, they are at your mercy. Hughes made sure his constituents were neither trusted nor empowered to care for themselves, and as a result remain dependents of the state. Instead of respecting the rights of all people, he treated constituents as pawns in Baltimore's political cesspool. That is his legacy, and good riddance.
Just as those retirements are unlikely to flip the balance for us, the retirement of western Maryland's Senator John Hafer is unlikely to result in a seat flipping against us. Pro-gun Delegate George Edwards is the odds-on favorite to move to the upper house. Retirement of our long-time friend Phil Jimeno from his Anne Arundel County seat gives us an action item. This is a district where we can make a difference to ensure the seat remains held by a friend. We have a definite action item in Prince George's County too, where the retirement of anti-gunner Leo Green gives us an opportunity to pick up a pro-gun seat. More on both of these next month after the field of contenders firms up.
Retirements aside, this brings us to hotly contested senate races. We'll have our hands full defending many pro-gun friends. Now is the time to be there for them the way they were there for us during legislative sessions! While the full list will be reported next issue, key races where we already know we must be involved are those of Kathy Klausmeier , Roy Dyson , Jim Brochin , John Giannetti and Richard Colburn .
In the House, most seats opening up are the result not of retirements but rather of Delegates making a Senate bid. A number of these demand our community's involvement, especially in the primary – the single best place we have greatest leverage, by virtue of how many people our community can muster. Some are clear choices between a pro- and anti-gunner, but others are worth our attention because of the chance they present to rid the General Assembly of gun grabbing extremists. One example is Neil Quinter , chief sponsor of unsuccessful semi-auto bans last term. He has a hard primary in Howard County, which means we've an opportunity to take out the anti-gun movement's House leadership. Most races in the lower house are still moving targets, though, so more on this next month.