(2010-02-09) We continue to field questions about Bob Ehrlich's prospects for a gubernatorial bid, especially since our 18 January advice that he follow Mike Steele's recommendation: come clean about your past before taking another shot at elective office in the future. This morning Josh Kurtz published a nice article giving more advice to Bob, which gives us a natural opportunity to elaborate. Josh's analysis is sound, but leaves open one important question: Who is Bob's base?
Conventional political advice would have a candidate ensure he has locked down his base before extending into the realm of swing voters or attempting to soften resolve of the opponents' base. For Ehrlich, the foundation upon which he builds the numbers scaffolding is something of a mystery. Who will it be?
We already know the names and history of the overwhelming majority of people who will serve as the deciders on November 2. Were I wrangling for a candidate, I'd very soon want to have gone down pretty much each name (at least by very precise profile) and figured out what message brings this voter out to the polls to pull for my client. This is a complex balancing act. What brings Sally out will de-energize Fred and offend Antoine. What energizes Antoine will open Sally to overtures from my opponent. The cost of achieving enough impressions for a successful message to invite Fred might leave me bankrupt and unable to take any message to Sally. This is a political engineering exercise we understand and play well (notwithstanding the fact that in Maryland liberty-minded engineers usually face over-constrained puzzles because of underfunded candidates.)
Bob knows that focusing on registered Republicans won't work in Maryland - R's by themselves are at a huge numerical disadvantage, so making it a 'party thing' for a state party that has stood for no issues starts with the game over.
How about a business case where there are energized R's, many open minded I's and a lackluster GOTV ("get out the vote") effort by D's? The latter won't happen - Bob has already had his once-in-a-lifetime opportunity to run against Kathleen Kennedy, a race he did not win so much as she lost. (Both ran abysmal campaigns, he just ran one that was least worst.) So the gubernatorial calculus comes down to analysis of issues - and saints be praised, issues count!
The whispering campaign worked once. "Shhh! Bob's with us. Pass it on." Issue groups played it 100 percent right in the first campaign. Those of us who had worked with Bob as a delegate and then congressman could credibly reassure our respective bases, and put them behind his candidacy while still giving him freedom to maneuver.
We couldn't do that a second time, and we can't do it now.
He took that freedom to maneuver from the campaign and extended it to policy. He screwed up on guns, taxes, charter schools, judicial appointments and a host of other issues that count to people who used to make up an Ehrlich base. His people were pretty open about it later, asking us "where are you gonna go?" with a sneer. The answer, of course, was "home." We all pretty much took a walk on him in '06, leaving him the candidate of issue-free R's, which is to say, someone who comes up short against any non-Kennedy the Dems might run. Ties to Ehrlich sank down-ticket incumbents then, and will do so again (case in point, the poster child for damaged goods, Carmen Amedori, a one-time conservative who takes her record of flipflopping to serve Bob as a Delegate up against Barbara Mikulski for Senate.) Does Bob really plan to build his base by appeal to people who are bi-polar on guns and enjoy paying fees in place of taxes in order to promote more big government?
Nobody on the right will hold their nose for this - we elect candidates to care for issues, not make up issues to elect candidates - and nobody on the left will vote for a cheap imitation liberal when they could have the real thing. Scott Brown won in MA because issues count, and he was righteous with the issues. What are the issues in MD on which Bob is credible and which give him a strong base? He needs to find at least one ... fast.
Independent voters commonly favor gubernatorial candidates having executive experience. A lot of people just want the basics of the job done effectively (witness the attention given these days to snow removal!) In 2002, and for the reasons already noted, Bob Ehrlich made the unlikely leap to Maryland's executive branch even though he lacked any administrative experience. As disengaged as he was in that role, a credible case can be made that he still lacks administrative experience. Going up against a seasoned incumbant (who is very engaged) with no more experience, but far less base, is an exercise in futility. Bob should take Josh's advice!